Europe’s tyre factories remain dependent on imported natural rubber, leaving domestic manufacturing exposed to disruption further upstream, according to Oxford Economics’ study commissioned by Tyres Europe.
The report identifies concentrated sourcing as a vulnerability. More than 90% of EU natural rubber supply comes from Thailand, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Its hypothetical scenario assumes a 13% fall in global natural rubber supply following severe weather and disease affecting Southeast Asian production. It incorporates approximately six months of acute tyre shortages and estimates cumulative EU GDP losses of €250bn over 2027–2029 against a no-disruption baseline. These figures describe a conditional scenario, rather than a forecast.
The distinction matters when assessing the benefits of European manufacturing. Tyres Europe argues that retaining local capacity reduces dependence on external finished-product suppliers. That capacity still requires dependable access to imported materials.
For tyre buyers, this raises a question beyond where a product is manufactured: how independently can its raw materials be secured if a major producing region is disrupted?
TNM’s earlier import analysis examined alternative suppliers, critical fitments and retreading. The natural rubber scenario adds an upstream consideration: different tyre factories may remain exposed to the same material bottleneck.
The modelling does not measure the resilience gained by relocating production. Establishing that would require manufacturer evidence on sourcing and production continuity.
Tags: natural rubber, European tyre production, tyre supply chain, Oxford Economics, Tyres Europe, rubber imports, supply resilience, tyre manufacturing
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